There is this concept in football – in all of team sports really – that the performance of all members of the team is critical to that team winning games. Individuals can have great games, seasons or careers on losing teams not because they aren’t awesome enough players (see Ernie Banks, Bert Blyleven, Kevin Garnett, etc and so on for examples of good players whose teams weren’t successful through no fault of their own) but because the others guys on their team aren’t awesome enough players. In many cases, the other plays on their team are just bad. Like, really bad.
Bernie Lincicome, I know that you understand this concept.
I know that you do.
You just don’t want to, and try to ignore it. And that makes me sad for you.
The Drive that wasn't. The Drives that weren't.
On the day that Jay Cutler became the greatest single-season passer in Broncos history, only two passes matter. Interception. Incomplete.
This is a classic logic fail. In addition to the stats showing that Jay Cutler has been awesome all season, in this last game he was 25 for 45 and 359 yards passing. I am pretty sure that for the Broncos, in their 30-23 loss to the Bills, more passes mattered than just the two that Bernie mentions. Because, well, without those earlier passes, the Broncos would not have scored the points that kept the game that close.
One pass ended a drive at the goal line, one pass ended a drive at the back of the end zone, one football nestling in the arms of a Buffalo linebacker and the other clattering beyond the hands of Broncos receiver Brandon Stokley.
Also, 25 passes were completed for 359 yards.
"(I) had my hands on the last one, I should have caught it . . . ," said Stokley. "That's the plays I've got to make."
And another pass should have been completed but the receiver screwed up.
Both of the above points are proof positive, of course, that Cutler really blew this one.
Not that the defense is not in line for its usual ridicule. They continue to tackle like passengers. Luggage gets harder wear.
The worst part, Bernie, is that you know better than to blame Cutler for this loss. You know that there are really sub-par players on the Broncos and are even able to point to who they are because you either quote them or tell me directly…but when it comes time to apportion the blame, you decide to go with the guy who is having a great season.
You hurt my heart.
Cutler has won games the Broncos should have lost and he has lost games the Broncos should have won.
I should have watched the Broncos more. Then not only would I have seen the awe-inspiring sight of a single man lining up alone on offense and defense against full NFL teams and beating them, but I would have seen how that lone man was also able to set the single-season passing record by throwing only to himself.
And that is where the real difficulty lies, if you think about it.
This was one of those he should have won.
By himself. Because that is how real men play football.
Cutler's 4,210 yards moved him past Jake Plummer for a season, and his 25 completions passed John Elway for most (351) in a season.
So, considering that Cutler is demonstrably playing well, perhaps there are other reasons that the Broncos didn’t win yesterday.
In fact, you may have mentioned it earlier in this very article…
To put this in perspective, recall the words of Mark Twain: "There are lies, damned lies and statistics."
To put this in perspective, there is logic, there is illogic and there is Bernie Lincicome.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Positive Reinforcement = Proof of Professional Journalism
I was set to call it a day until someone sent me this article. Rob Parker of the Detroit News, you're good enough, you're smart enough, and dog-gone-it, people like you.
Rod Marinelli and I have a different relationship.
[(Cue wah pedal guitar riff)]
On the surface, you might think it's adversarial. He hates me and I hate him. In reality, it's one built on mutual respect.
[Parker and Marinelli are the Ron Burgunday and Wes Mantooth of the sports world.]
I respect what Marinelli is trying to accomplish as Lions coach....
[Really?]
During Sunday's postgame news conference... I attempted to lighten the moment in a tense situation and asked Marinelli if he wished his daughter had married a better defensive coordinator. Joe Barry, the Lions defensive coordinator, is Marinelli's son-in-law.
[Actually, that is kind of funny. I mean, what else do they have to talk about at a Lions post-game presser?]
Marinelli didn't flinch, he just ignored my attempt at humor and moved on.
[Mutual respect.]
Mutual respect.
[Exactly.]
Often, after some of the most intense line of questioning from me, Marinelli and I have walked off to the side and chatted.
[This article is now nothing more than the old "The Chris Farley Show" SNL skit. Hey, remember after that one press conference when you came up to me? That was awesome.]
Marinelli has gone out of his way several times to offer words of encouragement. A month or so ago, he called me on my cell phone and told me I was one of the best at asking questions and that I shouldn't change because I hit a bump in the road.
[Professional journalism: Because Rod Marinelli said so.]
Rod Marinelli and I have a different relationship.
[(Cue wah pedal guitar riff)]
On the surface, you might think it's adversarial. He hates me and I hate him. In reality, it's one built on mutual respect.
[Parker and Marinelli are the Ron Burgunday and Wes Mantooth of the sports world.]
I respect what Marinelli is trying to accomplish as Lions coach....
[Really?]
During Sunday's postgame news conference... I attempted to lighten the moment in a tense situation and asked Marinelli if he wished his daughter had married a better defensive coordinator. Joe Barry, the Lions defensive coordinator, is Marinelli's son-in-law.
[Actually, that is kind of funny. I mean, what else do they have to talk about at a Lions post-game presser?]
Marinelli didn't flinch, he just ignored my attempt at humor and moved on.
[Mutual respect.]
Mutual respect.
[Exactly.]
Often, after some of the most intense line of questioning from me, Marinelli and I have walked off to the side and chatted.
[This article is now nothing more than the old "The Chris Farley Show" SNL skit. Hey, remember after that one press conference when you came up to me? That was awesome.]
Marinelli has gone out of his way several times to offer words of encouragement. A month or so ago, he called me on my cell phone and told me I was one of the best at asking questions and that I shouldn't change because I hit a bump in the road.
[Professional journalism: Because Rod Marinelli said so.]
Jason Whitlock: Vol. 5
Busy day on The Theorem (now that Nils has emerged from his coma). Let's keep it going with another gem from one of our favorites.
I see Tommy Tuberville as the lone victim in the Gene Chizik-Turner Gill-Charles Barkley controversy surrounding Auburn football.
[I have to agree with Whitlock here. Tuberville had a great tenure at Auburn. The firing seemed pretty reactionary to one sub-par season.]
If his name was Tommy Obama and his father was an irresponsible Kenyan, there would be blood filling the streets of Alabama this week.
[Well, agreeing with Whitlock was fun while it lasted. I have no idea where he's going with this analogy. I'm pretty sure that Obama lost Alabama in resounding fashion. Although, maybe "Tommy" Obama isn't a metaphorical person, but is actually some dude that Whitlock knows, and who happens to be all the rage in Alabama.]
OK, now that I have your attention, buckle up.
[Yes....]
We're going to travel deep into the college football-black coaches maze.
[Deep? I thought there were only like five black coaches? Whatever, I am buckled. Let's do this.]
It's an important topic, an issue that should be addressed with a level of sophistication and honesty that a Hall of Fame basketball player and rabble-rouser can't muster.
[That's right. Sorry, Barkley, but such an important issue can only be sufficiently analyzed by a professional journalist with well thought-out and articulated theories on the subject.]
Turner Gill, the black head football coach at Buffalo, is one of the most promising coaches in the game. He has a chance to be a superstar. Auburn wasn't the right "fit" for Gill.
[Nailed it! Journalism and/or race-relations award, please!]
Unlike pro football, and pro and college basketball, you don't really land college football jobs with your resume.
[For example, did you know that Charlie Weis landed the ND job solely because he and then-AD Kevin White both loved Bon Jovi? Or that Joe Paterno just landed his 3-year extension because he correctly answered the "I'm thinking of a number between one and ten" question?]
Turner Gill is not ready for the BCS. He's had one winning season in three as a head coach. His signature victory — an upset of Ball State in the MAC championship — came on a night when his opponent gave the game away with turnovers.
[Obviously. Because Ball State is AWESOME. They committed those turnovers on purpose. That championship game was beneath them. Pshawww.]
There was no coaching masterpiece. Skin color and a 15-22 record don't qualify you to coach in the SEC.
[Seemed to do the trick for Gene Chizik, no?]
Let me repeat: Turner Gill has all the necessary ingredients to be a coaching star. He could be the black Urban Meyer if we allow Gill to develop.
[Huh?]
Urban Meyer introduced an offensive system (the spread), molded two mid-major programs (Bowling Green and Utah) into squads that routinely whipped BCS schools and then jumped to Florida and the SEC.
[That last sentence can be described as "highly exaggerated" if we are willing to be generous. Meyer introduced the spread? To whom?]
Whitlock spends the rest of the article slinging arrows at the Ball State administration. Non sequiturs. Professional journalism.
I see Tommy Tuberville as the lone victim in the Gene Chizik-Turner Gill-Charles Barkley controversy surrounding Auburn football.
[I have to agree with Whitlock here. Tuberville had a great tenure at Auburn. The firing seemed pretty reactionary to one sub-par season.]
If his name was Tommy Obama and his father was an irresponsible Kenyan, there would be blood filling the streets of Alabama this week.
[Well, agreeing with Whitlock was fun while it lasted. I have no idea where he's going with this analogy. I'm pretty sure that Obama lost Alabama in resounding fashion. Although, maybe "Tommy" Obama isn't a metaphorical person, but is actually some dude that Whitlock knows, and who happens to be all the rage in Alabama.]
OK, now that I have your attention, buckle up.
[Yes....]
We're going to travel deep into the college football-black coaches maze.
[Deep? I thought there were only like five black coaches? Whatever, I am buckled. Let's do this.]
It's an important topic, an issue that should be addressed with a level of sophistication and honesty that a Hall of Fame basketball player and rabble-rouser can't muster.
[That's right. Sorry, Barkley, but such an important issue can only be sufficiently analyzed by a professional journalist with well thought-out and articulated theories on the subject.]
Turner Gill, the black head football coach at Buffalo, is one of the most promising coaches in the game. He has a chance to be a superstar. Auburn wasn't the right "fit" for Gill.
[Nailed it! Journalism and/or race-relations award, please!]
Unlike pro football, and pro and college basketball, you don't really land college football jobs with your resume.
[For example, did you know that Charlie Weis landed the ND job solely because he and then-AD Kevin White both loved Bon Jovi? Or that Joe Paterno just landed his 3-year extension because he correctly answered the "I'm thinking of a number between one and ten" question?]
Turner Gill is not ready for the BCS. He's had one winning season in three as a head coach. His signature victory — an upset of Ball State in the MAC championship — came on a night when his opponent gave the game away with turnovers.
[Obviously. Because Ball State is AWESOME. They committed those turnovers on purpose. That championship game was beneath them. Pshawww.]
There was no coaching masterpiece. Skin color and a 15-22 record don't qualify you to coach in the SEC.
[Seemed to do the trick for Gene Chizik, no?]
Let me repeat: Turner Gill has all the necessary ingredients to be a coaching star. He could be the black Urban Meyer if we allow Gill to develop.
[Huh?]
Urban Meyer introduced an offensive system (the spread), molded two mid-major programs (Bowling Green and Utah) into squads that routinely whipped BCS schools and then jumped to Florida and the SEC.
[That last sentence can be described as "highly exaggerated" if we are willing to be generous. Meyer introduced the spread? To whom?]
Whitlock spends the rest of the article slinging arrows at the Ball State administration. Non sequiturs. Professional journalism.
There Already is a "Greg Oden of Blogging"
His name is....... Greg Oden.
Yep, Oden has his own blog.
And he posts entries just about as frequently as he posts decent box scores, so the analogy even works for him too. What's his blog like? Glad you asked.
Hey Nils, something tells me that you are now in the market for a new anology.
Yep, Oden has his own blog.
And he posts entries just about as frequently as he posts decent box scores, so the analogy even works for him too. What's his blog like? Glad you asked.
We are on a week long east coast road trip, as of now we are 3-0. We play Boston tomorrow and Toronto on sunday. Those are two really good teams, they will be really tough to win and being at there place. The road trip has been good so far besides basketball they are some really good cities that we have been too. In Detroit i got to see my mom so that was good. Then in New York i just like it, me and Steve Blake went out to dinner and i got to see some of the places that were on this weeks episode of Gossip Girl.
Hey Nils, something tells me that you are now in the market for a new anology.
The Greg Oden of Blogging
As a regular reader, if there were a regular reader, would know, I have been posting only sporadically, especially compared to the incomparably prolific Archie Leach. 1. That will change. 2. It was the impetus for a funny exchange between Archie and myself as we tried to determine which NBA player I was the blogging equivalent of.
I opened with Brian Scalabrine, positing that I was much-rumored but little seen.
Archie responded that Scalabrine actually plays and, based on recent record, I was the Stephon Marbury of blogging.
Knowing that I had some good posts coming and not wanting to be tainted by association with Starbury, I proposed that I was actually the Greg Oden of blogging – around enough to show glimpses of promise before disappearing for an interminable length of time because of physical ailments. Of course, in my case the physical ailments are recovering from hangovers. It’s just an analogy.
And the analogy just got better as I am at least as marketable as the big man:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXbpB-rlung
I opened with Brian Scalabrine, positing that I was much-rumored but little seen.
Archie responded that Scalabrine actually plays and, based on recent record, I was the Stephon Marbury of blogging.
Knowing that I had some good posts coming and not wanting to be tainted by association with Starbury, I proposed that I was actually the Greg Oden of blogging – around enough to show glimpses of promise before disappearing for an interminable length of time because of physical ailments. Of course, in my case the physical ailments are recovering from hangovers. It’s just an analogy.
And the analogy just got better as I am at least as marketable as the big man:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXbpB-rlung
Peter King: Vol. 12
A pretty exciting NFL weekend. I have high hopes for Pete this morning.
No wonder Tennessee wins every year. The Titans have the best defensive depth in recent NFL history.
[A couple of things wrong with this absurdly exaggerated couplet. One, while the Titans received impressive contributions from backup players yesterday, one game does not lend itself to a "best (anything) in recent NFL history" statement. One game. Settle down. And two, Tennessee wins every year? Really? Unless Pete is referring to Univ. of Tennessee women's basketball, I'm pretty sure he just made that up. Let's check:
2008: 13-2
2007: 10-6
2006: 8-8
2005: 4-12
2004: 5-11
I will skip the subsequent five pages that Pete wastes talking about coffee, Leon Washinton's eyes, Holmgren's last home game (until he starts coaching again in 2010), etc. I'm glad he didn't spend more than a sentence talking about that Giants-Panthers game. That game was pretty boring anyways.]
Penn State is insane.... Can anyone who bleeds Nittany blue honestly tell me Paterno has the energy to out-recruit coaches 40 years his junior for the best football players in the country?
[I know, right? Paterno has been piecing together embarrassing teams for years now. The dude can't get ANY talent. I mean, just look at the last few seasons:
2008: 11-1
2007: 9-4
2006: 9-4
2005: 11-1
If only Penn State were more like the Titans, who win *every* year.]
Drew Brees needs 402 yards to break Dan Marino's career record of 5,084 passing yards in a season.... Here's the interesting thing about that game: Sean Payton has that record in his hands, and in his play-calling. Almost literally.
[Almost. Literally.]
Good for Boston.... In this economy, should a baseball player be paid more than $20 million a year?
[John Henry needs every extra million that he can hang on to!]
Almost. Literally.
No wonder Tennessee wins every year. The Titans have the best defensive depth in recent NFL history.
[A couple of things wrong with this absurdly exaggerated couplet. One, while the Titans received impressive contributions from backup players yesterday, one game does not lend itself to a "best (anything) in recent NFL history" statement. One game. Settle down. And two, Tennessee wins every year? Really? Unless Pete is referring to Univ. of Tennessee women's basketball, I'm pretty sure he just made that up. Let's check:
2008: 13-2
2007: 10-6
2006: 8-8
2005: 4-12
2004: 5-11
I will skip the subsequent five pages that Pete wastes talking about coffee, Leon Washinton's eyes, Holmgren's last home game (until he starts coaching again in 2010), etc. I'm glad he didn't spend more than a sentence talking about that Giants-Panthers game. That game was pretty boring anyways.]
Penn State is insane.... Can anyone who bleeds Nittany blue honestly tell me Paterno has the energy to out-recruit coaches 40 years his junior for the best football players in the country?
[I know, right? Paterno has been piecing together embarrassing teams for years now. The dude can't get ANY talent. I mean, just look at the last few seasons:
2008: 11-1
2007: 9-4
2006: 9-4
2005: 11-1
If only Penn State were more like the Titans, who win *every* year.]
Drew Brees needs 402 yards to break Dan Marino's career record of 5,084 passing yards in a season.... Here's the interesting thing about that game: Sean Payton has that record in his hands, and in his play-calling. Almost literally.
[Almost. Literally.]
Good for Boston.... In this economy, should a baseball player be paid more than $20 million a year?
[John Henry needs every extra million that he can hang on to!]
Almost. Literally.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Judging Championship Potential with Ian Thomsen
Headlined “The Simplest Way I Can Tell To Judge Championship Potential,” you would be forgiven for assuming that this article by Ian Thomsen would include a heavy dose of number of actual games won tempered by a nod to strength of schedule and consideration of the team’s injury situation. You would be forgiven because, well, that way of judging championship potential actually makes sense.
Instead, we get this:
In honor of the extended holiday, here is an extended look at the simplest way I know to gauge NBA championship potential. Search the roster of any team for an MVP-level talent with the leadership and drive of Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajuwon or (to cite the newest example) Kevin Garnett.
Tell the Minnesota Timberwolves that KG was all that was needed to be a championship contender. Or the Detroit Pistons that you need a singular MVP-level talent. Wait? What’s that? You reference the Pistons in your next sentence?
Well more than half of the NBA teams are absent this kind of star, which means you can essentially write them off as championship contenders (unless they are the Detroit Pistons of a few years ago, as you'll see below).
I can see that this method of evaluation is not going to be so simple after all.
In fact, if you bother to read the article because you are, like me, desperately interested in learning a simple way to determine championship contenders, you get a two-page list of awesome basketball players since the 80s and the following lessons:
2. Awesome players help teams win championships
1. You need luck to get those players on your team
1a. Coaches are less likely than players to earn an NBA championship ring because only one coach gets to win every year compared to a whole team of players
Not only simple, but totally useful for determining who might be in pole position to win this season!
Thank you Mr Thomsen for being totally uninformative in a most uninteresting way and still hitting your editor-mandated word count for the week. You, truly, are among the reasons that traditional media readership has fallen off a cliff.
Instead, we get this:
In honor of the extended holiday, here is an extended look at the simplest way I know to gauge NBA championship potential. Search the roster of any team for an MVP-level talent with the leadership and drive of Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajuwon or (to cite the newest example) Kevin Garnett.
Tell the Minnesota Timberwolves that KG was all that was needed to be a championship contender. Or the Detroit Pistons that you need a singular MVP-level talent. Wait? What’s that? You reference the Pistons in your next sentence?
Well more than half of the NBA teams are absent this kind of star, which means you can essentially write them off as championship contenders (unless they are the Detroit Pistons of a few years ago, as you'll see below).
I can see that this method of evaluation is not going to be so simple after all.
In fact, if you bother to read the article because you are, like me, desperately interested in learning a simple way to determine championship contenders, you get a two-page list of awesome basketball players since the 80s and the following lessons:
2. Awesome players help teams win championships
1. You need luck to get those players on your team
1a. Coaches are less likely than players to earn an NBA championship ring because only one coach gets to win every year compared to a whole team of players
Not only simple, but totally useful for determining who might be in pole position to win this season!
Thank you Mr Thomsen for being totally uninformative in a most uninteresting way and still hitting your editor-mandated word count for the week. You, truly, are among the reasons that traditional media readership has fallen off a cliff.
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