Friday, October 31, 2008

We Get It. Jon Heyman Hates Math: Vol. 1

As we've long read, Jon Heyman loves to use his eyeballs. Unless it is to look at things that have been objectively quantified.

Gillick's success in Philly is another point in favor of scouts over stats in the debate about the value of the two strategies. Gillick puts a lot of faith in his scouts, employs a stable of experienced scouts and relies on their eyes rather than a bunch of numbers anyone can read.

[Scouting players that have awesome stats = a win for scouts over stats? Here's a list of the Phillies' first-round draft picks from 1997-2002: J.D. Drew, Pat Burrell, Brett Myers, Chase Utley, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. Actually, that's pretty damn good. And the Phillies took Jimmy Rollins in the 2nd round in 1996 and nabbed Ryan Howard in the 5th round in 2001. Maybe Gillick does have an unbelievable eye. I mean, Gillick single-handedly built a World Series champion through the draft. Wait, let me just make sure I'm not...... oh. Jeez, this is embarrassing. Apparently Gillick didn't become GM of the Phillies until 2005. Hmmm, well now I'm just confused. The way Heyman talks, apparently "scouts" = inherenting a team with lots of dudes who have awesome stats. If so, then yes, scouts >> stats. I get it now. Thanks, Heyman!]

The Mariners' hiring of Jack Zduriencik as GM is an inspired call, though. It's somewhat surprising to see someone who's 57 get his first GM job, but it may reflect some new hesitancy on the part of some to go for another young Ivy League stat man.

[Some new hesitancy? Am I missing something? Theo Epstein is the best GM in baseball. Jon Daniels rebuilt the Rangers' farm system into the league's best. And how did Tampa Bay do this year? And Arizona last year? But sure, the Mariners probably don't want to be like any of those teams. Totally sucking at baseball is cool too.]

2 comments:

Nils Nilsson said...

I think that, instead of an Ivy Leaguer, that Mariners are looking for someone like you or me who went to New England colleges of some repute that don't actually compete in the Ivy League. You know, to separate themseleves from the pack.

Sadly, I know that both you and I are busy getting drunk on multiple days during this offseason which is probably why the M's went with a placeholder candidate.

Mickey Cooper said...

I think that's what was ultimately Matt Millen's undoing in Detroit....